Scenario outlook
What could happen to dam levels if the coming months are average, dry, or a drought repeat. These scenarios are explanatory, not official forecasts.
Starting point: current combined storage is 75.0% Projection horizon: Sep → Jun
Three rainfall paths
Three rainfall paths from 75.0% today — showing where storage could land by Jun
Scenario outcomes
Where each path ends and how low it dips — the trough matters most for restriction risk.
| Scenario | End level | Trough | Risk |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average winter | 56.9% | 48.1% | Med |
| Dry winter | 42.4% | 37.3% | Med |
| Drought repeat | 29.2% | 24.1% | High |
Monthly paths
| Month | Average | Dry | Drought |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sep | 75.0% | 75.0% | 75.0% |
| Oct | 74.0% | 72.4% | 63.8% |
| Nov | 71.1% | 67.2% | 58.6% |
| Dec | 66.9% | 61.0% | 50.2% |
| Jan | 60.4% | 53.9% | 41.9% |
| Feb | 55.1% | 47.9% | 35.9% |
| Mar | 50.4% | 42.4% | 30.4% |
| Apr | 48.2% | 39.2% | 27.2% |
| May | 48.1% | 37.3% | 24.1% |
| Jun | 56.9% | 42.4% | 29.2% |
Reference thresholds
Restriction watch line
~50%
When storage heads toward 50%, tighter water restrictions usually enter the conversation.
Critical pressure zone
~30%
Below this range, severe restrictions become much more likely.